Stafford Gambit: Win Rate by Lichess Rating

Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit · 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nc6 · CC0 name list

At 1500–1799 (Lichess rating), Black scored 51.3% in 2,536 Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit games (±1.9; games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026).

Black won 49.8% of them, White won 47.3%, and 2.9% were drawn.

No clear difference from 50% at this level (inside the margin)

In games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026, Black scored 51.3% (±1.9) with the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit in sampled Lichess games at the 1500–1799 Lichess rating level (2,536 games). Observed results, not causation.

Data period: games from 1 Oct 2025 – 30 Sep 2026 (sample of the Lichess open database) · Page updated: 9 Oct 2026

0.2%

of rated games at Lichess rating 1200–1499 reached the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit · 2,191 of 1,195,994 games, Oct 2025–Sep 2026 sample

At 2100+: 0.1%. At 1200–1499: 0.2%. 3.4× as common at 1200–1499 as at 2100+.

Position after 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nc6. 7,784 games in this sample reached it — 40 of them by a different move order.

At a glance

In this sample, White's score ranged from 46.4% (Under 1200) to 52.8% (2100+).
Treat this spread with caution: the margins are approximate (see How it works).
It appeared most often in the 1200–1499 group (0.2% of that group's games).
Draws were most common in the 1800–2099 group (4.1%).

These are observed results for the selected games (rated, players within 200 rating points of each other). They describe what happened — they do not prove the opening caused the result.

Results by Lichess rating level

Each row shows how the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit games at one rating level ended: White wins, draws and Black wins, across all time controls combined. Rating level is the average Lichess rating of both players.

White won drawn Black won. Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit — results by Lichess rating level, all time controls combined (minimum 300 games per row).

Under 12001,205 games

White wins 45.1% · draws 2.7% · Black wins 52.2% · White's score 46.4% ±2.8 · how common 0.1%
1200–14992,191 gamesIn the headline

White wins 45.5% · draws 2.3% · Black wins 52.2% · White's score 46.7% ±2.1 · how common 0.2%
1500–17992,536 games

White wins 47.3% · draws 2.9% · Black wins 49.8% · White's score 48.7% ±1.9 · how common 0.2%
1800–20991,482 games

White wins 46.8% · draws 4.1% · Black wins 49.1% · White's score 48.9% ±2.5 · how common 0.1%
2100+370 gamesCompared with

White wins 50.8% · draws 4.1% · Black wins 45.1% · White's score 52.8% ±5.0 · how common 0.1%

"White's score" = wins + half of draws. "±" is an approximate 95% margin based only on the number of games. It does not cover sampling bias or related games (the same players appear many times), so real uncertainty is larger. "How common" = share of all sampled games at that level that reached this position. Ratings are Lichess ratings; they are not interchangeable with Chess.com or FIDE ratings.

See the replies most often played next at the Lichess level you choose, on one printable sheet: Prepare replies in Find Your Opening (the sheet needs JavaScript)

Results by time control

Each row shows how the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit games ended in one Lichess time control, across all rating levels combined.

Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit — results by time control, all rating levels combined (minimum 300 games per row)
Time control	Games	White wins	Draws	Black wins	White's score
Bullet	2,126	46.0%	2.0%	51.9%	47.1%
Blitz	3,875	46.1%	3.3%	50.6%	47.7%
Rapid	1,722	48.0%	3.6%	48.4%	49.8%
Classical	61	Not enough games in this sample

This table and the rating rows are separate summaries: rating levels are not split by time control here, and time controls are not split by rating. Observed results only; approximate uncertainty applies as above.

Most played replies for White at each level

Top replies with at least 150 games. "Score" is White's score after that reply (wins + half of draws). These comparisons alone can't show that one reply is reliably better — the margins are approximate and stronger or weaker players may prefer different replies.

Replies to 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 Nc6 by Lichess rating level, all time controls combined
Rating level	Reply · share · games · score
Under 1200	4.Nxc6 ·78.1% · 940 · 45.1% ±3.1
1200–1499	4.Nxc6 ·84.0% · 1,838 · 45.8% ±2.3
1500–1799	4.Nxc6 ·82.9% · 2,101 · 48.2% ±2.1 4.Nf3 ·6.8% · 172 · 54.4% ±7.3
1800–2099	4.Nxc6 ·83.1% · 1,231 · 47.8% ±2.7
2100+	4.Nxc6 ·83.8% · 310 · 51.6% ±5.4

Up next: related positions with a page

Earlier position: Petrov's Defense 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6
Related line: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 (King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation)
Related line: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d6 (Philidor Defense)
Related line: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 (Italian Game: Two Knights Defense)

Download these numbers: Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit (CSV), released under CC0. For move-by-move exploration with your own filters, see the free Lichess opening explorer. This independent page lists each rating level and each time control in its own row for comparison.