Openings › Insights › Score changes from Under 1200 to 2100+
Biggest Score Drop From Under 1200 to 2100+ (Lichess Rating)
The largest drop from Under 1200 to 2100+ was White's score with the Italian Game: Evans Gambit: 56.2% → 48.7% (-7.5 points; combined margin ±6.8). A small sample: 349 games at one level.
28 opening pages changed by more than the combined margin: 16 dropped, 12 rose.
In Lichess games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026: The largest drop from Under 1200 to 2100+ was White's score with the Italian Game: Evans Gambit: 56.2% → 48.7% (-7.5 points; combined margin ±6.8). A small sample: 349 games at one level. Observed results, not causation.
Based on the sampled Lichess games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026 (5,629,529 games used), by Lichess rating level (the average of both players' ratings).
The numbers
| Opening | Side | Under 1200 | 2100+ | Change | Combined margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italian Game: Evans Gambit small sample | White | 56.2% (349) | 48.7% (448) | -7.5 points | ±6.8 |
| Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit small sample | Black | 53.6% (1,205) | 47.2% (370) | -6.4 points | ±5.7 |
| Vienna Game: Vienna Gambit small sample | White | 58.7% (1,564) | 53.0% (849) | -5.7 points | ±4.1 |
| Rapport-Jobava System | White | 56.5% (3,063) | 53.6% (2,127) | -2.9 points | ±2.7 |
| King's Gambit | White | 54.0% (7,358) | 51.2% (3,532) | -2.8 points | ±2.0 |
| Ruy Lopez | White | 53.8% (16,299) | 51.0% (9,418) | -2.7 points | ±1.2 |
| Italian Game | White | 52.6% (46,556) | 50.2% (9,397) | -2.5 points | ±1.1 |
| Sicilian Defense | Black | 50.9% (36,542) | 48.5% (85,888) | -2.4 points | ±0.6 |
| Caro-Kann Defense | Black | 50.4% (31,493) | 48.1% (38,423) | -2.3 points | ±0.7 |
| Queen's Gambit | White | 55.2% (20,822) | 53.1% (22,847) | -2.1 points | ±0.9 |
| King's Knight Opening | White | 53.3% (177,313) | 51.1% (36,482) | -2.1 points | ±0.5 |
| London System | White | 54.4% (22,400) | 52.4% (5,542) | -2.0 points | ±1.4 |
| Scotch Game | White | 54.5% (19,167) | 52.5% (5,577) | -2.0 points | ±1.4 |
| Indian Defense | Black | 49.1% (15,221) | 47.6% (61,921) | -1.5 points | ±0.9 |
| Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian | Black | 49.5% (7,397) | 48.1% (16,095) | -1.4 points | ±1.3 |
| French Defense | Black | 49.7% (37,552) | 48.3% (41,547) | -1.4 points | ±0.7 |
| King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation | Black | 47.5% (108,116) | 48.7% (27,285) | +1.2 points | ±0.6 |
| English Opening | White | 51.5% (13,065) | 52.8% (34,583) | +1.2 points | ±1.0 |
| Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation | White | 52.6% (17,266) | 54.0% (16,831) | +1.4 points | ±1.0 |
| French Defense: Knight Variation | White | 50.6% (14,313) | 52.7% (7,792) | +2.1 points | ±1.3 |
| Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation | Black | 46.0% (24,376) | 48.3% (13,412) | +2.3 points | ±1.0 |
| Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit | White | 48.3% (6,574) | 50.8% (2,308) | +2.5 points | ±2.3 |
| Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit | White | 48.6% (4,329) | 51.2% (8,491) | +2.6 points | ±1.8 |
| Blackmar-Diemer Gambit | White | 50.3% (5,136) | 53.0% (2,390) | +2.7 points | ±2.4 |
| Sicilian Defense: Closed | White | 50.2% (3,429) | 52.9% (14,691) | +2.7 points | ±1.8 |
| Three Knights Opening | White | 50.8% (24,569) | 53.5% (4,142) | +2.8 points | ±1.6 |
| Petrov's Defense | Black | 45.4% (21,397) | 49.0% (4,274) | +3.6 points | ±1.6 |
| Italian Game: Two Knights Defense | Black | 45.7% (19,952) | 50.2% (4,286) | +4.5 points | ±1.6 |
Margins are approximate 95% margins based only on the number of games; real uncertainty is larger (games come in blocks and the same players play many of them). These are observed results, not causes. Download: Score changes from Under 1200 to 2100+ (CSV), CC0.