Sicilian Dragon Variation: Win Rate by Lichess Rating

Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation · 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6 · CC0 name list

At 1500–1799 (Lichess rating), Black scored 46.5% in 1,025 Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation games (±3.0; games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026).

Black won 44.5% of them, White won 51.4%, and 4.1% were drawn.

Black scores below 50% at this level (outside the margin)

In games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026, Black scored 46.5% (±3.0) with the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation in sampled Lichess games at the 1500–1799 Lichess rating level (1,025 games). Observed results, not causation.

Data period: games from 1 Oct 2025 – 30 Sep 2026 (sample of the Lichess open database) · Page updated: 9 Oct 2026

0.3%

of rated games at Lichess rating 2100+ reached the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation · 1,903 of 689,970 games, Oct 2025–Sep 2026 sample

At 1200–1499: 0.0%. At 2100+: 0.3%. 9.3× as common at 2100+ as at 1200–1499.

Position after 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6. 5,286 games in this sample reached it — 586 of them by a different move order.

At a glance

In this sample, White's score ranged from 46.6% (1200–1499) to 53.5% (1500–1799).
Treat this spread with caution: the margins are approximate (see How it works).
It appeared most often in the 2100+ group (0.3% of that group's games).
Draws were most common in the 2100+ group (6.5%).

These are observed results for the selected games (rated, players within 200 rating points of each other). They describe what happened — they do not prove the opening caused the result.

Results by Lichess rating level

Each row shows how the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation games at one rating level ended: White wins, draws and Black wins, across all time controls combined. Rating level is the average Lichess rating of both players.

White won drawn Black won. Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation — results by Lichess rating level, all time controls combined (minimum 300 games per row).

Under 1200104 games

Not enough games in this sample
1200–1499355 gamesCompared with

White wins 44.5% · draws 4.2% · Black wins 51.3% · White's score 46.6% ±5.1 · how common 0.0%
1500–17991,025 games

White wins 51.4% · draws 4.1% · Black wins 44.5% · White's score 53.5% ±3.0 · how common 0.1%
1800–20991,899 games

White wins 48.0% · draws 3.5% · Black wins 48.5% · White's score 49.7% ±2.2 · how common 0.1%
2100+1,903 gamesIn the headline

White wins 45.7% · draws 6.5% · Black wins 47.8% · White's score 48.9% ±2.2 · how common 0.3%

"White's score" = wins + half of draws. "±" is an approximate 95% margin based only on the number of games. It does not cover sampling bias or related games (the same players appear many times), so real uncertainty is larger. "How common" = share of all sampled games at that level that reached this position. Ratings are Lichess ratings; they are not interchangeable with Chess.com or FIDE ratings.

Compare it with another choice from the same position, at the Lichess level and time control you choose: Compare in Find Your Opening (the comparison needs JavaScript)

Results by time control

Each row shows how the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation games ended in one Lichess time control, across all rating levels combined.

Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation — results by time control, all rating levels combined (minimum 300 games per row)
Time control	Games	White wins	Draws	Black wins	White's score
Bullet	1,706	47.4%	4.2%	48.4%	49.5%
Blitz	2,875	48.2%	4.7%	47.1%	50.6%
Rapid	677	45.8%	6.2%	48.0%	48.9%
Classical	28	Not enough games in this sample

This table and the rating rows are separate summaries: rating levels are not split by time control here, and time controls are not split by rating. Observed results only; approximate uncertainty applies as above.

Most played replies for White at each level

Top replies with at least 150 games. "Score" is White's score after that reply (wins + half of draws). These comparisons alone can't show that one reply is reliably better — the margins are approximate and stronger or weaker players may prefer different replies.

Replies to 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6 by Lichess rating level, all time controls combined
Rating level	Reply · share · games · score
Under 1200	Not enough games in this sample
1200–1499	Not enough games in this sample
1500–1799	6.Be3 ·26.0% · 267 · 57.5% ±5.8 6.Bg5 ·20.5% · 210 · 52.4% ±6.6 6.Bc4 ·14.7% · 151 · 52.0% ±7.8
1800–2099	6.Be3 ·35.2% · 667 · 51.0% ±3.7 6.Bc4 ·15.5% · 293 · 45.9% ±5.6 6.Bg5 ·12.2% · 231 · 51.3% ±6.3
2100+	6.Be3 ·49.7% · 945 · 48.5% ±3.1 6.Bc4 ·10.6% · 202 · 51.5% ±6.7 6.Be2 ·9.6% · 182 · 45.6% ±6.9

Up next: related positions with a page

Earlier position: Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6
Related line: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 (Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian)
Related line: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6 (Sicilian Defense: French Variation)
Related line: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 g6 (Sicilian Defense: Hyperaccelerated Dragon)

Other choices from the same position for Black: each one's own level and score, as on its page
Opening	Lichess rating level	Games	Black's score
vs Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6	1500–1799	2,758	52.9% ±1.8

Each row is a separate page with its own games. A difference smaller than the two margins combined is no clear difference. Observed results, not causation.

Deeper positions with this name

The free opening list gives the name Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation to 1 deeper position on this line as well. This page counts the first one; games in the 12-month sample that reached each deeper one:

1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6 6.Be3: 1,967 games

Download these numbers: Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation (CSV), released under CC0. For move-by-move exploration with your own filters, see the free Lichess opening explorer. This independent page lists each rating level and each time control in its own row for comparison.