Sicilian Modern Variations: Win Rate by Lichess Rating

Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations · 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 · CC0 name list

At 1500–1799 (Lichess rating), Black scored 50.0% in 20,387 Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations games (±0.7; games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026).

Black won 48.1% of them, White won 48.0%, and 3.9% were drawn.

No clear difference from 50% at this level (inside the margin)

In games from Oct 2025–Sep 2026, Black scored 50.0% (±0.7) with the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations in sampled Lichess games at the 1500–1799 Lichess rating level (20,387 games). Observed results, not causation.

Data period: games from 1 Oct 2025 – 30 Sep 2026 (sample of the Lichess open database) · Page updated: 9 Oct 2026

1.8%

of rated games at Lichess rating 1800–2099 reached the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations · 24,150 of 1,329,701 games, Oct 2025–Sep 2026 sample

Under 1200: 0.5%. At 1800–2099: 1.8%. 3.9× as common at 1800–2099 as under 1200.

Position after 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6. 74,080 games in this sample reached it — 1,275 of them by a different move order.

At a glance

In this sample, White's score ranged from 50.0% (1200–1499) to 51.3% (2100+).
Treat this spread with caution: the margins are approximate (see How it works).
It appeared most often in the 2100+ group (2.3% of that group's games).
Draws were most common in the 2100+ group (6.8%).

These are observed results for the selected games (rated, players within 200 rating points of each other). They describe what happened — they do not prove the opening caused the result.

Results by Lichess rating level

Each row shows how the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations games at one rating level ended: White wins, draws and Black wins, across all time controls combined. Rating level is the average Lichess rating of both players.

White won drawn Black won. Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations — results by Lichess rating level, all time controls combined (minimum 300 games per row).

Under 12003,781 gamesCompared with

White wins 49.0% · draws 2.7% · Black wins 48.3% · White's score 50.3% ±1.6 · how common 0.5%
1200–14999,982 games

White wins 48.4% · draws 3.3% · Black wins 48.3% · White's score 50.0% ±1.0 · how common 0.8%
1500–179920,387 games

White wins 48.0% · draws 3.9% · Black wins 48.1% · White's score 50.0% ±0.7 · how common 1.3%
1800–209924,150 gamesIn the headline

White wins 48.4% · draws 4.4% · Black wins 47.3% · White's score 50.6% ±0.6 · how common 1.8%
2100+15,780 games

White wins 47.9% · draws 6.8% · Black wins 45.3% · White's score 51.3% ±0.8 · how common 2.3%

"White's score" = wins + half of draws. "±" is an approximate 95% margin based only on the number of games. It does not cover sampling bias or related games (the same players appear many times), so real uncertainty is larger. "How common" = share of all sampled games at that level that reached this position. Ratings are Lichess ratings; they are not interchangeable with Chess.com or FIDE ratings.

Compare it with another choice from the same position, at the Lichess level and time control you choose: Compare in Find Your Opening (the comparison needs JavaScript)

Results by time control

Each row shows how the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations games ended in one Lichess time control, across all rating levels combined.

Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations — results by time control, all rating levels combined (minimum 300 games per row)
Time control	Games	White wins	Draws	Black wins	White's score
Bullet	22,800	48.0%	3.4%	48.6%	49.7%
Blitz	39,972	48.4%	4.8%	46.7%	50.8%
Rapid	10,821	48.0%	5.5%	46.5%	50.8%
Classical	487	46.0%	5.5%	48.5%	48.8%

This table and the rating rows are separate summaries: rating levels are not split by time control here, and time controls are not split by rating. Observed results only; approximate uncertainty applies as above.

Most played replies for White at each level

Top replies with at least 150 games. "Score" is White's score after that reply (wins + half of draws). These comparisons alone can't show that one reply is reliably better — the margins are approximate and stronger or weaker players may prefer different replies.

Replies to 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 by Lichess rating level, all time controls combined
Rating level	Reply · share · games · score
Under 1200	3.Bc4 ·32.1% · 1,213 · 51.0% ±2.8 3.d4 ·30.8% · 1,163 · 51.9% ±2.8 3.Nc3 ·14.4% · 542 · 48.2% ±4.1
1200–1499	3.d4 ·38.4% · 3,833 · 49.8% ±1.6 3.Bc4 ·28.5% · 2,845 · 49.3% ±1.8 3.Nc3 ·9.6% · 961 · 51.4% ±3.1
1500–1799	3.d4 ·47.0% · 9,573 · 50.0% ±1.0 3.Bc4 ·20.5% · 4,173 · 48.8% ±1.5 3.c3 ·11.3% · 2,293 · 52.8% ±2.0
1800–2099	3.d4 ·55.7% · 13,455 · 50.1% ±0.8 3.Bc4 ·12.7% · 3,058 · 49.0% ±1.7 3.c3 ·12.0% · 2,900 · 51.8% ±1.8
2100+	3.d4 ·65.0% · 10,250 · 50.2% ±0.9 3.Bb5+ ·9.9% · 1,565 · 54.3% ±2.4 3.c3 ·9.2% · 1,458 · 54.4% ±2.5

Up next: related positions with a page

Earlier position: Sicilian Defense 1.e4 c5
Deeper line: Sicilian Najdorf Variation 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6
Deeper line: Sicilian Dragon Variation 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6
Related line: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 g6 (Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon)
Related line: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 (King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation)
Related line: 1.e4 d5 (Scandinavian Defense)

Other choices from the same position for Black: each one's own level and score, as on its page
Opening	Lichess rating level	Games	Black's score
vs Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6	1500–1799	39,118	49.0% ±0.5
vs Sicilian Defense: French Variation 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 e6	1500–1799	16,443	49.6% ±0.8
vs Sicilian Defense: Hyperaccelerated Dragon 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 g6	1500–1799	3,276	50.1% ±1.7

Each row is a separate page with its own games. A difference smaller than the two margins combined is no clear difference. Observed results, not causation.

Download these numbers: Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations (CSV), released under CC0. For move-by-move exploration with your own filters, see the free Lichess opening explorer. This independent page lists each rating level and each time control in its own row for comparison.